So has anyone heard? There is an election tomorrow. It is the special election to see who will serve out the remainder of the late Sen. Ted Kennedy’s term in Massachusetts’ Senate seat. To the surprise of just about everyone, the incredibly blue state of Massachusetts (they gave President Obama %61.8 of the vote in November of 2008) is most likely going to give the majority of its vote to a Republican candidate, State Senate Scott Brown, who opposes just about every item on the President’s agenda, while turning heavily against the Democratic candidate, Mass. Attorney General Martha Coakley. For a more complete rundown of what the polls look like going into the election tomorrow, check out Nate Silver’s analysis. The key point:
Overall, while I would probably take Coakley’s side of a 3:1 wager, her situation looks to be increasingly difficult. She is basically relying upon getting solid turnout from a “silent majority” of voters who have done little to make themselves seen and heard. We know that there are a huge number of potential such voters in Massachusetts, which remains a very blue state and which until the past three weeks had not behaved unusually in any obvious way. But the pollsters are no longer seeing and hearing from them.
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